Paying For A Name - Gary Armida's Blog

Arena Blog Dynasty Scores Sign Up ☰

Gary Armida's Blog

Paying For A Name Stuck

Posted on November 6, 2012 at 08:28 AM.

(0)

In 2009 Zack Greinke turned in one of the most dominating seasons in recent baseball history. Pitching for a poor Royals club, Greinke pitched 229.1 innings, allowed just 195 hits, 51 walks, and struck out a league leading 205 batters. That went with a stellar 2.16 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and 1.073 WHIP. He won 16 games and became the first Cy Young Award winner that built his case around statistics other than the win column. It was a feel good story as Greinke made a successful return from an anxiety disorder that nearly ended his career at age 21. But, at 25 years old, Greinke concluded a four year journey that saw him return to the bullpen, get back into the rotation, begin to improve, and then become dominant. 2009 was a season of culmination and realization. His comeback was complete; his potential became reality.

That 2009 season was simply amazing. Greinke�s Royals won just 65 games that season. The offense was in the bottom three in every major category. Even with Greinke and a dominant Joakim Soria, the Royals staff was also in the bottom three in every major category. There wasn�t much reason to watch them. But, every fifth day, there was Zack Greinke, the best pitcher in the game for that season. Some may say that Greinke had zero pressure pitching for the worst team in the sport, but the Royals were painfully bad. They were so bad that it was almost impossible for any pitcher to put up a season like Greinke. He seemingly did it all by himself. With a WAR of 9.3, he sort of did.

Since 2009, however, Greinke hasn�t really come close to matching that season. He had a poor 2010, posting a 4.17 ERA, although that came with a much more palatable 3.34 FIP. He gave up about a hit per inning and struck out two less batters per nine innings. Then came the trade to the Brewers. The move to the National League led to a career high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings rate, but his 3.83 ERA seemed high. His 2.98 FIP was an indictment on the Brewers defense, but he still gave up 8.4 hits per nine innings. He had a very solid 2012, posting 15 wins, a 3.48 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, 8.5 H/9, and 8.5 K/9 in 34 starts for both the Brewers and Angels.

There is no doubt that Zack Greinke is one of the better pitchers in baseball. Entering his age 29 season, Greinke is still in his prime, has been relatively injury free, and is showing some positive signs of improvement in ground balls. For his career, he induces ground balls a 41.9 percent rate. But, his rate has improved in each of the past three seasons to a career high of 49.2 percent. Pitchers who can strike out batters at a high rate and induce ground balls at a high rate have a better chance of sustaining.

Even with that improvement, however, there is something a bit risky with signing Zack Greinke to the mega contract that he will get this winter. Since his Cy Young season, Greinke�s average season has read: 32 starts, 201 innings, 8.6 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 8.6 K/9. Over those three seasons, he has posted a 3.83 ERA, a 1.215 WHIP, and a FIP of 3.14. All of that spells an above average pitcher who can help any team. But, does it spell a pitcher who most likely will get the richest contract by a right handed starting pitcher in Major League Baseball history?

There is something to be said for timing as Greinke hits the market as the clear top choice of starting pitchers available. His age, his performance, and that one historically dominant season are all superior to the rest of the available pitchers. But, consider the following:

Average Season From 2010-2012

James Shields: 15-12, 32 starts, 222 innings, 8.6 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 3.76 ERA.
Edwin Jackson: 11-11, 31 starts, 200 innings, 9.2 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 4.10 ERA.
Ervin Santana: 12-12, 32 starts, 210 innings, 8.5 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 4.08 ERA.
Doug Fister: 9-12, 28 starts, 183 innings, 8.8 H/9, 1.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 3.41 ERA.
Anibal Sanchez: 10-11, 32 starts, 196 innings, 8.9 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 3.70 ERA.
Tim Hudson: 16-9, 32 starts, 208 innings, 7.9 H/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 3.19 ERA.

Ok, that�s enough. It�s not that these pitchers are better than Zack Greinke. With the exception of perhaps James Shields, there is no argument that Greinke is the superior pitcher. But, is his production that much better than the rest? Greinke figures to get an average annual salary of at least $20 million per season. He is going to get paid like an ace.

Ervin Santana is going to make $14 million, which most agree is far too much money for his production. Tim Hudson is making $9 million in each of the next few seasons. The most he ever made in a season was $13 million. Fister hasn�t hit arbitration yet. Anibal Sanchez is hitting free agency for the first time. He made $8 million last season. Maybe he gets $13 to $15 million per season, which is still well below the $20 million+ price tag. And, Sanchez is also entering his age 29 season. Again, Sanchez isn�t Greinke, but is Greinke worth almost double what Sanchez would get paid?

James Shields is signed to a team friendly deal and will make $9 million and $12 million in each of the next two seasons. Shields has received some attention for his exploits, but he is never mentioned as one of the game�s best starting pitchers. Yet, statistically, he is better in most areas than Greinke. It is that one great season that has put Greinke into a higher level on baseball�s pitching pecking order than Shields. That one season, however, was four years ago.

Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. He will get the biggest contract of the offseason. Many teams will be involved for his services. But, his production doesn�t match his likely salary. It happens when a very good pitcher hits a very thin market. It happens when a very good pitcher has one elite season on his resume followed by three seasons of above average production.

Any team that signs Greinke will be improved, but as far as salary is concerned, teams will be paying a premium because of his name. Perhaps Greinke can come close to approximating his 2009 Cy Young Award season, but nothing in the past three years has come close. That�s a pretty large sample size. That elite season looks like the apex. There is still a very good, high end starter, but not one that should be paid like an elite one.

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operationsports. For more baseball coverage, head over to fullcountpitch.com. Also, join the discussion on twitter @garyarmida